New Seat Details - Essex North East

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Essex North East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	35,899	63.8%
LAB	13,896	24.7%
LIB	3,415	6.1%
Green	1,394	2.5%
UKIP	1,376	2.4%
OTH	187	0.3%
MIN	72	0.1%
CON Majority	22,003	39.1%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Essex North East: Map

List of old seats forming part of Essex North East

Old seat: Clacton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clacton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Clacton				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Tendring	Alton Park	3,420	Harwich and Clacton	1,262	910	50	177	39	0	12	13	2,463
Tendring	Beaumont and Thorpe	1,782	Harwich and Clacton	874	196	23	64	16	0	4	4	1,181
Tendring	Bockings Elm	4,036	Harwich and Clacton	1,440	625	52	217	34	0	12	14	2,394
Tendring	Burrsville	1,782	Harwich and Clacton	624	241	24	88	42	0	6	6	1,031
Tendring	Frinton	3,375	Harwich and Clacton	1,513	321	39	108	31	0	27	30	2,069
Tendring	Golf Green	3,990	Harwich and Clacton	1,304	872	28	196	31	0	24	27	2,482
Tendring	Hamford	3,259	Harwich and Clacton	1,303	381	39	178	27	0	27	30	1,985
Tendring	Haven	1,796	Harwich and Clacton	699	231	18	45	14	0	23	25	1,055
Tendring	Holland and Kirby	3,809	Harwich and Clacton	1,633	448	49	220	36	0	32	36	2,454
Tendring	Homelands	1,706	Harwich and Clacton	670	197	12	81	11	0	6	6	983
Tendring	Little Clacton and Weeley	3,797	Essex North East	1,568	448	49	200	34	0	33	37	2,369
Tendring	Peter Bruff	3,238	Harwich and Clacton	1,348	504	133	205	35	0	13	14	2,252
Tendring	Pier	3,326	Harwich and Clacton	1,358	863	36	188	43	0	13	14	2,515
Tendring	Rush Green	3,428	Harwich and Clacton	1,318	867	30	208	35	0	17	19	2,494
Tendring	St Bartholomews	3,939	Harwich and Clacton	1,522	498	48	99	31	0	37	41	2,276
Tendring	St James	3,325	Harwich and Clacton	1,401	458	40	183	29	0	28	31	2,170
Tendring	St Johns	3,814	Harwich and Clacton	1,355	689	53	170	90	0	15	17	2,389
Tendring	St Marys	3,614	Harwich and Clacton	1,475	820	52	223	38	0	18	20	2,646
Tendring	St Osyth and Point Clear	3,673	Essex North East	1,446	549	26	93	27	0	39	43	2,223
Tendring	St Pauls	3,761	Harwich and Clacton	1,570	487	48	231	40	0	36	40	2,452
Tendring	Walton	3,339	Harwich and Clacton	1,345	597	38	182	35	0	30	33	2,260
	Total	68,209		27,028	11,202	887	3,356	718	0	452	500	44,143

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clacton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Harwich and North Essex

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Harwich and North Essex, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Harwich and North Essex				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Colchester	Dedham and Langham	2,334	Essex North East	1,195	300	88	28	35	0	0	5	1,651
Colchester	East Donyland	1,845	Colchester	644	716	66	30	35	0	0	2	1,493
Colchester	Fordham and Stour	4,180	Essex North East	2,074	611	179	53	65	0	0	4	2,986
Colchester	Great Tey	2,138	Essex North East	998	300	113	66	31	0	0	1	1,509
Colchester	Pyefleet	2,087	Essex North East	1,026	287	81	26	35	0	0	1	1,456
Colchester	West Bergholt and Eight Ash Green	3,822	Essex North East	1,817	634	183	136	67	0	0	13	2,850
Colchester	West Mersea	5,747	Essex North East	2,614	883	215	208	98	0	0	10	4,028
Colchester	Wivenhoe Cross	1,627	Essex North East	1,193	919	298	116	86	0	0	3	2,615
Colchester	Wivenhoe Quay	4,049	Essex North East	1,469	1,126	266	52	92	0	0	3	3,008
Tendring	Alresford	1,677	Essex North East	646	297	145	25	14	0	0	2	1,129
Tendring	Ardleigh and Little Bromley	1,846	Essex North East	917	300	28	23	10	0	0	1	1,279
Tendring	Bradfield, Wrabness and Wix	1,828	Essex North East	811	324	31	65	13	0	0	5	1,249
Tendring	Brightlingsea	6,398	Essex North East	2,697	1,317	202	106	160	0	0	48	4,530
Tendring	Great and Little Oakley	1,655	Harwich and Clacton	729	341	34	83	12	0	0	8	1,207
Tendring	Great Bentley	1,751	Essex North East	836	266	110	26	14	0	0	4	1,256
Tendring	Harwich East	1,779	Harwich and Clacton	592	790	49	37	21	0	0	10	1,499
Tendring	Harwich East Central	3,656	Harwich and Clacton	1,271	1,288	98	148	34	0	0	4	2,843
Tendring	Harwich West	3,902	Harwich and Clacton	1,423	1,083	94	161	27	0	0	4	2,792
Tendring	Harwich West Central	3,792	Harwich and Clacton	1,290	1,294	95	63	30	0	0	4	2,776
Tendring	Lawford	3,364	Essex North East	1,486	745	85	50	56	0	0	3	2,425
Tendring	Manningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring	3,562	Essex North East	1,717	666	88	51	65	0	0	2	2,589
Tendring	Ramsey and Parkeston	1,677	Harwich and Clacton	680	517	43	82	15	0	0	3	1,340
Tendring	Thorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley	3,724	Essex North East	1,796	560	198	52	27	0	0	2	2,635
	Total	68,440		29,921	15,564	2,789	1,687	1,042	0	0	142	51,145

The full details of these calculations are given on the Harwich and North Essex seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Witham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Witham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Witham				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Braintree	Coggeshall	3,999	Braintree	1,970	729	98	0	114	0	0	0	2,911
Braintree	Great Notley and Black Notley	1,792	Braintree	995	294	47	0	41	0	0	0	1,377
Braintree	Hatfield Peverel and Terling	4,689	Witham and Maldon	2,426	678	97	0	110	0	0	0	3,311
Braintree	Kelvedon and Feering	4,251	Braintree	2,045	836	115	0	130	0	0	0	3,126
Braintree	Silver End and Cressing	3,409	Braintree	1,595	747	93	0	136	0	0	0	2,571
Braintree	Witham Central	4,147	Witham and Maldon	1,752	997	284	0	133	0	0	0	3,166
Braintree	Witham North	4,759	Witham and Maldon	1,918	1,435	254	0	161	0	0	0	3,768
Braintree	Witham South	4,260	Witham and Maldon	1,995	1,000	226	0	105	0	0	0	3,326
Braintree	Witham West	4,801	Witham and Maldon	2,047	1,462	216	0	149	0	0	0	3,874
Colchester	Birch and Winstree	4,233	Essex North East	2,305	570	180	0	89	0	0	0	3,144
Colchester	Copford and West Stanway	1,468	Essex North East	783	180	69	0	29	0	0	0	1,061
Colchester	Marks Tey	1,983	Essex North East	874	403	89	0	55	0	0	0	1,421
Colchester	Stanway	6,329	Essex North East	2,756	1,185	485	0	172	0	0	0	4,598
Colchester	Tiptree	5,864	Essex North East	2,875	1,026	207	0	120	0	0	0	4,228
Maldon	Great Totham	2,851	Witham and Maldon	1,586	349	50	0	82	0	0	0	2,067
Maldon	Tollesbury	1,571	Witham and Maldon	630	384	39	0	46	0	0	0	1,099
Maldon	Tolleshunt D'Arcy	3,167	Witham and Maldon	1,544	479	132	0	90	0	0	0	2,245
Maldon	Wickham Bishops and Woodham	2,830	Witham and Maldon	1,575	270	35	0	71	0	0	0	1,951
	Total	66,403		31,671	13,024	2,716	0	1,833	0	0	0	49,244

The full details of these calculations are given on the Witham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Essex North East

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Essex North East
Colchester	Birch and Winstree	4,415	Witham	2,305	570	180	0	89	0	0	0	3,144
Colchester	Copford and West Stanway	1,489	Witham	783	180	69	0	29	0	0	0	1,061
Colchester	Dedham and Langham	2,300	Harwich and North Essex	1,195	300	88	28	35	0	0	5	1,651
Colchester	Fordham and Stour	4,163	Harwich and North Essex	2,074	611	179	53	65	0	0	4	2,986
Colchester	Great Tey	2,103	Harwich and North Essex	998	300	113	66	31	0	0	1	1,509
Colchester	Marks Tey	1,994	Witham	874	403	89	0	55	0	0	0	1,421
Colchester	Pyefleet	2,029	Harwich and North Essex	1,026	287	81	26	35	0	0	1	1,456
Colchester	Stanway	6,457	Witham	2,756	1,185	485	0	172	0	0	0	4,598
Colchester	Tiptree	5,937	Witham	2,875	1,026	207	0	120	0	0	0	4,228
Colchester	West Bergholt and Eight Ash Green	3,973	Harwich and North Essex	1,817	634	183	136	67	0	0	13	2,850
Colchester	West Mersea	5,615	Harwich and North Essex	2,614	883	215	208	98	0	0	10	4,028
Colchester	Wivenhoe Cross	3,645	Harwich and North Essex	1,193	919	298	116	86	0	0	3	2,615
Colchester	Wivenhoe Quay	4,194	Harwich and North Essex	1,469	1,126	266	52	92	0	0	3	3,008
Tendring	Alresford	1,573	Harwich and North Essex	646	297	145	25	14	0	0	2	1,129
Tendring	Ardleigh and Little Bromley	1,781	Harwich and North Essex	917	300	28	23	10	0	0	1	1,279
Tendring	Bradfield, Wrabness and Wix	1,742	Harwich and North Essex	811	324	31	65	13	0	0	5	1,249
Tendring	Brightlingsea	6,314	Harwich and North Essex	2,697	1,317	202	106	160	0	0	48	4,530
Tendring	Great Bentley	1,751	Harwich and North Essex	836	266	110	26	14	0	0	4	1,256
Tendring	Lawford	3,380	Harwich and North Essex	1,486	745	85	50	56	0	0	3	2,425
Tendring	Little Clacton and Weeley	3,717	Clacton	1,568	448	49	200	34	0	33	37	2,369
Tendring	Manningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring	3,612	Harwich and North Essex	1,717	666	88	51	65	0	0	2	2,589
Tendring	St Osyth and Point Clear	3,489	Clacton	1,446	549	26	93	27	0	39	43	2,223
Tendring	Thorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley	3,674	Harwich and North Essex	1,796	560	198	52	27	0	0	2	2,635
	Total	79,347		35,899	13,896	3,415	1,376	1,394	0	72	187	56,239

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Essex North East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Bernard Jenkin (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	79,347
Turnout:	70.9%

Essex North East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Essex North East: Overview

Introduction